TESTING FOR CONTINUOUS-TIME MODELS

OF THE SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE

BROZE, L. *, SCAILLET, O. **, and J.-M. ZAKOIAN ***

* CORE and Universite de Lille 3 ** CREST *** CREST and Universite de Lille 1

 

Abstract

The recent financial literature has been much concerned with the short-term interest rate. Several models have been proposed and studied quite extensively. Despite the number of models, relatively little is known about their empirical comparison. A first approach of this problem is proposed in Chan et al. (1992) using a Generalized Method of Moments. In this paper, we give a general form encompassing the most usual models and derive a well specified discrete time version. Then we study the ergodic properties in order to build a consistent econometric procedure based on a maximum likelihood approach. An empirical comparison is performed using U.S. Treasury Bill data. Finally we examine an estimation strategy, based on a two-step indirect simulated method, to account for the dicretization step.

Keywords : short term interest rate, diffusion process, discretization bias.

JEL : G12, C22.